Indian benchmark indices ended the week lackluster, with Nifty finishing the week 0.5% lower. A host of important domestic and global events lined up during the week are likely to impact stock markets when they resume trading on Monday.
On Friday, Nifty declined 225.10 points or 0.9% to end the day at 24,837.
Commenting on the day's action, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said that the Nifty remained under sustained selling pressure as the index slipped below the crucial support level of 24,900. Moreover, it has closed below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) for the first time in several sessions, signaling a meaningful weakening of the ongoing trend, he added.
“If the Nifty fails to reclaim levels above 24,900 in the next session or two, bulls could face significant short-term challenges. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 24,700, followed by 24,500. On the upside, resistance is now placed around 25,000," De said.
Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week:
1. FOMC meeting
An all-important Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) begins this week on Tuesday, July 29. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give an insight of the Central Bank’s view on the US economy, inflation and impact of tariffs. The outcome will be announced on July 30 and the interest rate is likely to remain unchanged.
2. Tariff deadline ends
Global markets will watch out for the developments on tariff as the August 1 pause deadline gets over this week.
3. US markets
The action on Wall Street will give cues to the global markets including India. Apart from the Fed rate setting panel’s meeting and tariffs, top US companies like meta will announce their second quarter earnings.
On Friday, the US stock markets ended in the green. The Dow 30 ended the session at 44,901.90, gaining 208.01 points or 0.47% while S&P 500 settled at 6,388.64, up by 25.29 points or 0.40%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 21,108.30, increasing by 50.36 points 0.24%.
4. Q1 earnings
Adani Green Energy Ltd, Adani Total Gas, Bharat Electronics, CarTrade Tech, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, NTPC Green Energy, RailTel Corporation of India, , Hyundai Motor India, InterGlobe Aviation, Dabur India, One Mobikwik Systems, Swiggy, TVS Motor Company, Adani Power and Tata Power Company.
Among the Nifty companies will be Bharat Electronics (BEL), Indusind Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, NTPC, Coal India, Eicher Motors, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Maruti Suzuki India, Titan Intech and ITC.
On Saturday, results of Kotak Mahindra Bank and IDFC Bank were also announced and stock of these companies will also be in focus.
5. Corporate Action
Plenty of corporate action is lined-up this week with record dates for dividends, rights issue, stock split and bonus shares for more than 100 companies over the five-day trading week.
The companies that will have record dates for the purpose of dividend are DLF, KPIT Technologies, Wipro, Bosch, Eveready Industries India, Inox Wind, Punjab & Sind Bank, Coforge, Prataap Snacks, Bata India, City Union Bank, Eicher Motors, Marico, Maruti Suzuki India, REC and United Spirits.
GTV Engineering has a record date for its stock split and 2:1 bonus issue. Indian Infotech & Software will have its record date on July 28 Jul for its rights issue of equity shares. Jonjua Overseas will also have its record date on the same day for its 1:20 bonus issue.
6. IPO watch
Five mainboard issues will open for subscription this week viz. Sri Lotus Developers and Realty IPO, National Securities Depository (NSDL) IPO, M&B Engineering (IPO), Aditya Infotech (IPO), and Laxmi India Finance (IPO).
Also Read: Sri Lotus Developers IPO's latest GMP shows stock listing at 21% premium. Check details
In the SME segment, 8 IPOs will hit the D-Street this week viz. Repono, Kaytex Fabrics, B.D.Industries (Pune), Mehul Colours, Takyon Networks, Cash Ur Drive Marketing, Renol Polychem and Flysbs Aviation.
Ongoing issues of Shanti Gold International Limited, Brigade Hotel Ventures Limited and Sellowrap Industries Limited will also conclude this week.
7. FII / DII Action
Market actions will rely on how foreign institutional investors (FIIs) behave. On Friday, FIIs sold shares worth Rs 1,979.96 crore while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 2,138.59 crore.
After remaining net buyers for the last three months, FIIs have been net sellers so far in July at Rs 6,503 crore.
8. Technical Factors
"The chart structure has clearly deteriorated for the bulls. On the daily chart, Nifty had been trading within a rising channel pattern since May. However, this week’s breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary confirms a bearish reversal. Importantly, this breakdown is accompanied by a bearish gap, which qualifies as a breakaway gap, adding further conviction to the bearish setup," Bhosale said.
Additionally, the index has broken below the 50-day EMA, a level that had previously provided strong support. Collectively, these signals suggest the potential for deeper downside, possibly towards the 200-day SMA, which lies in the 24200–24000 zone. For the coming week, immediate support is placed near the 89-day EMA at 24650, followed by the 24500 level, which has acted as a strong base during the May–June consolidation phase. On the upside, the bearish gap and the 50DEMA zone around 24950–25000 now act as immediate resistance, while the 25250 level, the high of the last two weeks, remains a stiff barrier," this analyst said.
9. Rupee Vs Dollar
The Indian rupee fell to a one-month low on Friday, and logged its third straight weekly decline, pressured by outflows from local stocks and caution among investors ahead of a news-heavy week dominated by tariffs and central bank decisions. The rupee closed at 86.5150 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 0.4% on the week. The local currency hit a low of 86.6250 earlier in the session, its weakest level since June 23.
Dollar sales from local private banks, likely on behalf of exporter clients, helped limit the rupee's losses, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
The dollar index was up 0.2% at 97.7 while Asian currencies declined by as much as 0.7%.
Rupee's movement against the dollar will likely be keenly watched through the week as the greenback would react to the Fed announcements and tariff triggers.
10. Crude Oil
Crude oil prices remain critical for the stock markets as they have the potential to alter the inflation dynamics in a country. Oil prices fell sharply on Friday at a three-week low as traders were worried about negative economic news from the U.S. and China and signs of growing supply.
The US WTI oil contracts ended at $65.07, down by $0.96 or 1.45% while Brent oil futures were hovering near $68.44, higher by $0.79 or 1.14%.
(Inputs from agencies)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
On Friday, Nifty declined 225.10 points or 0.9% to end the day at 24,837.
Commenting on the day's action, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said that the Nifty remained under sustained selling pressure as the index slipped below the crucial support level of 24,900. Moreover, it has closed below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) for the first time in several sessions, signaling a meaningful weakening of the ongoing trend, he added.
“If the Nifty fails to reclaim levels above 24,900 in the next session or two, bulls could face significant short-term challenges. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 24,700, followed by 24,500. On the upside, resistance is now placed around 25,000," De said.
Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week:
1. FOMC meeting
An all-important Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) begins this week on Tuesday, July 29. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give an insight of the Central Bank’s view on the US economy, inflation and impact of tariffs. The outcome will be announced on July 30 and the interest rate is likely to remain unchanged.
2. Tariff deadline ends
Global markets will watch out for the developments on tariff as the August 1 pause deadline gets over this week.
3. US markets
The action on Wall Street will give cues to the global markets including India. Apart from the Fed rate setting panel’s meeting and tariffs, top US companies like meta will announce their second quarter earnings.
On Friday, the US stock markets ended in the green. The Dow 30 ended the session at 44,901.90, gaining 208.01 points or 0.47% while S&P 500 settled at 6,388.64, up by 25.29 points or 0.40%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 21,108.30, increasing by 50.36 points 0.24%.
4. Q1 earnings
Adani Green Energy Ltd, Adani Total Gas, Bharat Electronics, CarTrade Tech, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, NTPC Green Energy, RailTel Corporation of India, , Hyundai Motor India, InterGlobe Aviation, Dabur India, One Mobikwik Systems, Swiggy, TVS Motor Company, Adani Power and Tata Power Company.
Among the Nifty companies will be Bharat Electronics (BEL), Indusind Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, NTPC, Coal India, Eicher Motors, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Maruti Suzuki India, Titan Intech and ITC.
On Saturday, results of Kotak Mahindra Bank and IDFC Bank were also announced and stock of these companies will also be in focus.
5. Corporate Action
Plenty of corporate action is lined-up this week with record dates for dividends, rights issue, stock split and bonus shares for more than 100 companies over the five-day trading week.
The companies that will have record dates for the purpose of dividend are DLF, KPIT Technologies, Wipro, Bosch, Eveready Industries India, Inox Wind, Punjab & Sind Bank, Coforge, Prataap Snacks, Bata India, City Union Bank, Eicher Motors, Marico, Maruti Suzuki India, REC and United Spirits.
GTV Engineering has a record date for its stock split and 2:1 bonus issue. Indian Infotech & Software will have its record date on July 28 Jul for its rights issue of equity shares. Jonjua Overseas will also have its record date on the same day for its 1:20 bonus issue.
6. IPO watch
Five mainboard issues will open for subscription this week viz. Sri Lotus Developers and Realty IPO, National Securities Depository (NSDL) IPO, M&B Engineering (IPO), Aditya Infotech (IPO), and Laxmi India Finance (IPO).
Also Read: Sri Lotus Developers IPO's latest GMP shows stock listing at 21% premium. Check details
In the SME segment, 8 IPOs will hit the D-Street this week viz. Repono, Kaytex Fabrics, B.D.Industries (Pune), Mehul Colours, Takyon Networks, Cash Ur Drive Marketing, Renol Polychem and Flysbs Aviation.
Ongoing issues of Shanti Gold International Limited, Brigade Hotel Ventures Limited and Sellowrap Industries Limited will also conclude this week.
7. FII / DII Action
Market actions will rely on how foreign institutional investors (FIIs) behave. On Friday, FIIs sold shares worth Rs 1,979.96 crore while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 2,138.59 crore.
After remaining net buyers for the last three months, FIIs have been net sellers so far in July at Rs 6,503 crore.
8. Technical Factors
"The chart structure has clearly deteriorated for the bulls. On the daily chart, Nifty had been trading within a rising channel pattern since May. However, this week’s breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary confirms a bearish reversal. Importantly, this breakdown is accompanied by a bearish gap, which qualifies as a breakaway gap, adding further conviction to the bearish setup," Bhosale said.
Additionally, the index has broken below the 50-day EMA, a level that had previously provided strong support. Collectively, these signals suggest the potential for deeper downside, possibly towards the 200-day SMA, which lies in the 24200–24000 zone. For the coming week, immediate support is placed near the 89-day EMA at 24650, followed by the 24500 level, which has acted as a strong base during the May–June consolidation phase. On the upside, the bearish gap and the 50DEMA zone around 24950–25000 now act as immediate resistance, while the 25250 level, the high of the last two weeks, remains a stiff barrier," this analyst said.
9. Rupee Vs Dollar
The Indian rupee fell to a one-month low on Friday, and logged its third straight weekly decline, pressured by outflows from local stocks and caution among investors ahead of a news-heavy week dominated by tariffs and central bank decisions. The rupee closed at 86.5150 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 0.4% on the week. The local currency hit a low of 86.6250 earlier in the session, its weakest level since June 23.
Dollar sales from local private banks, likely on behalf of exporter clients, helped limit the rupee's losses, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
The dollar index was up 0.2% at 97.7 while Asian currencies declined by as much as 0.7%.
Rupee's movement against the dollar will likely be keenly watched through the week as the greenback would react to the Fed announcements and tariff triggers.
10. Crude Oil
Crude oil prices remain critical for the stock markets as they have the potential to alter the inflation dynamics in a country. Oil prices fell sharply on Friday at a three-week low as traders were worried about negative economic news from the U.S. and China and signs of growing supply.
The US WTI oil contracts ended at $65.07, down by $0.96 or 1.45% while Brent oil futures were hovering near $68.44, higher by $0.79 or 1.14%.
(Inputs from agencies)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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